Friday, January 22, 2010

Final Round

John Kennedy vs George H. W. Bush

I know the general assumption out there is that JFK wins because he's younger and more charismatic. But you have to be careful when you make assumptions.

These two men are very different. For one, they're of different parties, so we're looking at who can win the swing states. Neither man is going to convert states of the other party. Second, I look at Bush and see a fatherly figure, whereas Kennedy seems more like a big brother. And I don't mean that in a 1984 sense.

Bush has some Navy pilot experience, a couple of terms in the House, other assorted political jobs including Chair of the RNC, and two terms of vice presidency. Kennedy had a couple of terms in the senate, and Naval experience.

At this point, we must reflect of similarities to the Election of 1960. Richard Nixon was also an older (than Kennedy) Republican, with experience in the armed forces, a couple Congress terms, and two VP terms. Nixon lost in a close election, quite possibly due to Kennedy's better appearance in the television debates.

Now that we've acknowledged that, let's notice the differences between Bush and Nixon. Bush was a bit more active as Vice President, perhaps making him more qualified. He's better with the television debates than Nixon was, at least in terms of appearance. So he and Kennedy would be on an even television playing field.

Another aspect of the Election of 1960 that helped Kennedy win it was his Vice Presidential pick of Lyndon Johnson to appease the South. However, we are matching up only the presidential candidates, and the South has become less dominated by the Democratic party as time has passed.

All these factors compounded, we're gearing up for one of the closest elections in history. All the Republican states comfortably go to Bush, and all the Democratic states comfortably go to Kennedy. But the swing states would have much less of a clear result. Some would go each way.

In the end, Kennedy performs very well.

But not quite as well as George Bush. The debates would only affect the votes of some of the most moderate candidates. Everyone else would have been predisposed to think in favor of one candidate or the other. Bush and Kennedy would break fairly even in these debates, both on television and on the radio. And thus, with Kennedy losing his main buffer in 1960, he loses to George H. W. Bush by just a few electoral votes and not many popular votes either.


Congratulations to George H. W. Bush for winning the Presidential Super Tournament.


P.S. Yes, I know you all disagree with me. No, I didn't make it happen this way just to piss you off/make you scratch your head/contradict your thoughts.

2 comments:

  1. "No, I didn't make it happen this way just to piss you off/make you scratch your head/contradict your thoughts." Really?

    Are you kidding me? JFK loses to GHW Bush? The Kennedy campaign machine never lost. Ever. Money, celebrities, glamor. They had it all. HW Bush was an average campaigner on his best day, and not at all a smooth public speaker. His win in 1988 was more of a tribute to Reagan than him, and his loss in 1992 (19 months after Desert Storm) was a statement.

    Fix! Fix! Fix!

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  2. I agree. In the present state of the nation, JFK would smash.

    ReplyDelete