Semi-finals

If you don't mind, I'm reversing the match order. If you do mind, suck it up.

Lyndon Johnson vs George H. W. Bush

Earlier in the tournament, I believe it was Round 1, perhaps Round 2, there was the matchup of Lyndon Johnson and George W. Bush. I actually gave no explanation, saying merely "LBJ wins. 'Nuff said."

One may expect similar results from LBJ/Elder Bush.

One may expect incorrectly.

This is a Democrat vs. Republican election, so it is safe to assume that the blue states stay blue and the red states stay red. ...Right?

Wrong. Texas has suddenly become a swing state. Both presidents are from there, and so this large, generally solid red state comes into dispute.

Not to oversimplify matters, but let us assume that the winner of Texas wins the election. This would definitely be true in the case of an LBJ victory, but is somewhat less certain in a Bush victory. However, it is still a generally accurate indicator of who will become the victor in this election.

In past matchups, LBJ has had vast and varied political experience as his greatest asset. Bush has experience in the House of Representatives and as Vice President. His time as Vice President was far more active than most.

In addition, Bush has experience as a pilot in World War II.

With his advantages over LBJ, Bush easily wins Texas. The other swing states would likely be less of a runaway, but still give enough electoral votes to Bush for him to win the election.




John Kennedy vs Barack Obama (tl;dr version included at bottom)

Apparently this is the preferred final match to a number (2) of the readers. I certainly understand why. It may be percieved that these two men are the strongest in the tournament. We will see in the finals if that is true.

But in addition to their strength, they are interesting as a
matchup because they're so similar. Neither has significant amounts of political experience, but both seem to be calm in campaign. They have similar ideological views.

The questions become:
Who wins the Democrats? By how much?
Who wins the Republicans? By how much?
Do the Republicans vote in full force?

First, let us address who the Republican side is more likely to support. Republicans are seen to be a more pro-war party. Thus JFK has a significant margin over Obama in the Republican clothespin voting. But don't think for a minute that Obama won't get a significant minority of Republican clothespin votes. Black Republicans and other Republicans largely in favor of progression of minorities (both of which exist, albeit not in large numbers) would vote for Obama.

I have twice referred to clothespin votes. This brings me to my second point. Republicans will not turn out in full force. Those who would cover their nose and choose Kennedy as the lesser of two evils are more likely to abstain than those who would vote for Obama based upon his race. This appears to give Obama the advantage on the Republican side. But then, Kennedy takes over the Republicans again through all the ones who do not want a black president. And so Kennedy wins the Republicans by a small margin.

The Democratic vote is much simpler to explain. Black Democrats definitely vote for Obama. White Democrats split, probably about 70/30 in favor of Kennedy.

What this fails to take into account are two things about JFK. First, his endocrine problems. But, if he could hide them 50 years ago, he could probably hide them now. Second, his affairs. These would have an effect on his campaign if they became public. However, the effect would be small, mostly taking away Republican votes, but not converting them to Obama. Plus, the morality issues mean less and less to the public as time passes.

And thus John Kennedy defeats Barack Obama. Not by much. But enough to win.

tl;dr version: JFK wins.











And so the stage is set.

JFK vs. George H. W. Bush in the final election of the tournament.

Friday.